The Ides of November, 2020
(for abbreviations, scroll down to the end of this article)
It turns out that we are not better than this…
What will happen between now and January 20th?
What do I hope happens between now and January 20th?
What will change after January 20th?
What will happen between now and January 20th?
Trump will be omnipresent:
- He’s like a train-wreck… much as it might want to, the media won’t be able to look away.
- There will be no concession, minimal help for transition, and no thought for the good of the nation. Never forget: for Trump it is always only about Donald Trump… nothing else matters. Anyway, why should he concede? He’s raising money non-stop “to help support his legal battles” (but in reality mostly flowing into his pockets).
- Trump’s long-term goal in claiming that victory was “stolen” from him is to retain the allegiance of “his” voters… the more they believe that he won, the angrier they will get, and the more committed to him they will be (i.e., the more money he can con out of them).
- In the short term, he is probably also still hoping that a miracle will happen (clear proof of fraud, court decisions, favourable recounts, state legislatures ignoring results, faithless electors…).
- While in parallel trying to make various deals to avoid prosecution, cover up misdeeds, settle scores, and trade for advantages.
- And he will probably, sooner or later, pardon himself.
Almost all RPs will continue to publicly support Trump:
- For the most vocal RPs the motivation will be their attempt to inherit leadership of Trump’s voters. In addition, all RPs want Trump’s support (or at least not opposition) for the GA Senate runoffs on Jan 5th.
- After Jan 5th there will be more RPs who call for Trump to accept defeat. But Trump will attack those who speak out… and their calls will be muted.
- The safest thing to do will be to avoid becoming a focus of Trump’s ire, so most RPs will keep their heads down and either say nothing, or that whatever Trump is doing is OK as long as it isn’t against the law.
It is possible that there will be some violence from the radical right, but if so it will probably not be widespread:
- The most radical 20% of Republicans believe that the election is being stolen by the DP. They are being encouraged to believe this not only by Trump and right-wing media hotheads, but also by a loud fraction of RPs and officials.
- There has been no violence yet because Trump hasn’t given the signal, and because his most ardent supporters still expect him to win.
- If, or rather when, things don’t go Trump’s way, it is possible that he will call upon his supporters to take to the streets. For Trump, the threat… or reality… of violence is just a bargaining chip: give him what he wants or someone will get hurt.
- But it is more likely that Trump will not explicitly call for violence. At heart, he’s a blusterer rather than a general. And if violence should fail, he wants to be able to deny responsibility… as he always does when he fails. Trump’s eventual acquiescence to his loss, which will be shown by him moving out of the White House, will undercut and demoralise the MAGA mob.
- Of course, a few of his most extreme supporters may take up arms anyway. There have already been low-key armed standoffs between Ds and Rs in PA, and armed Rs circulating outside of polling places in AZ. There have been a record 17+ million weapons purchased in the US this year. The situation is like the forests in the West: highly combustible.
However, whatever Trump does, it is almost certain that Joe Biden will be certified as the winner of the Presidential Election:
- Yes, his leads in several states are narrow, but not narrow enough to be overturned through recounts, and in too many states for a single point of failure (or sabotage) to occur.
- There doesn’t appear to have been more than an inconsequential amount of election fraud, and none of the Trump’s team’s legal challenges look likely to succeed… or to be consequential if they do.
- There will be no military coup because the military remains steadfastly opposed to involvement in domestic disputes, and, anyway, Trump no longer enjoys the traditional support of the military for Republicans.
- And there will be no judicial coup because Barr knows he doesn’t have the forces to control the chaos that would erupt (and in that event a suddenly unified Congress would step in to evict both Trump and Barr).
Bottom line: Trump will leave the White House on or before Jan 20th.
Next section: What do I hope happens between now and January 20th?
Terminology:
R — Republican. D — Democrat. RV — Republican Voter. DV — Democratic Voter. RP — Republican Politician. DP — Democratic Politician. The RP — The Republican Party. The DP — the Democratic Party. EO — Executive Order.
