The Ides of November, 2020
(for abbreviations, scroll down to the end of this article)
It turns out that we are not better than this…
What will happen between now and January 20th?
What do I hope happens between now and January 20th?
What will change after January 20th?
What will change after January 20th?
Trump won’t change or go away:
- He will not go away just because he is out of the White House. First, he loves the attention. Second, keeping his base loyal means that he can squeeze money out of them and mobilize them whenever he wants to pressure politicians and localities to accede to his demands.
- There will be a three way battle to inherit Trump’s voters… which Trump will win.
- Some populist RPs will try to position themselves as Trump’s natural heirs (Cruz, Cotton…). Trump’s actual heirs (his sons) will do the same. However, Trump will not give up “his” voters without a fight. He will react badly if he thinks that he is being sidelined.
- Meanwhile, a few RPs will try to reclaim the soul of the RP from Trump… but they will fail, dismally (which is why this isn’t a four-way battle :-).
- Trump will be like the Tea Party on steroids: able and willing to primary any RP who stands against him, or failing that to hamstring an RP for the general election. So the RP will remain Trump’s party, and RPs will not be free of Trump until he is in jail or otherwise out of the picture.
The RP won’t change:
- See points about Trump above. And anyway, why should they? What they are doing is, in general, working pretty well: there has been no general rejection of the RP.
- McConnell shows no signs of having had a Damascene conversion: he is still the same chap who chuckles when he is called Mr No and The Grim Reaper and who announced that he would do everything in his power to make Obama a one term president.
- So, it is almost certain that McConnell and a R-controlled Senate will regard Biden’s presidency as Obama redux and block anything and everything that might help Ds.
- In the media, RPs will still lie shamelessly and demonise Ds, because ignorant RVs are loyal RVs. And RPs will support Trump’s narrative of a stolen election even after Trump has left the White House, because the appearance of illegitimacy weakens Biden and angry RVs are RVs who are going to turn out to vote.
- The damage caused to public trust in government and democracy is irrelevant. The most important thing for most RPs is retaining or regaining power. Anyone who thinks otherwise hasn’t been paying attention for the past decade or two.
- And as long as Trump is around, the RP will remain Trump’s party, because the base loves Donald and does what Donald wants. Until that changes, RPs won’t change.
The DP won’t change:
- It will remain a broad tent… a coalition of many different groups with different goals and agendas. It will continue to have tensions between its moderate and progressive wings, and in a lesser way between other groups in the broad tent.
- It will therefore continue to have one major disadvantage vs the RP: continual internal strife. The DP has no dominant wing, so it has to find compromise, which is always challenging and messy.
- The RP is also a coalition: between the rich and the afraid / angry. But the rich who dominate the RP have no qualms about duping the rest, and the afraid / angry are easy to dupe.
- However, the DP will also continue to have one major advantage vs the RP: there are more DVs than RVs.
The media won’t change:
- Everywhere we will continue to see opposing opinions, talking heads disagreeing, moderators “moderating”, and readers / viewers deciding (at least, that’s the theory).
- On the positive side, there has already been and will continue to be ever less deference towards Trump. On the negative side, there will continue to be far too much deference towards RPs and their surrogates in the non-partisan media.
- And moderators and editors will not pronounce judgements… they will not tell their audience which side is correct. The days of Cronkite and Murrow show no signs of coming back anytime soon.
- So Rs will continue to have the opportunity to spout their nonsense and lies, even in the “good” media, and won’t be vigorously challenged (e.g., Santorum at CNN).
- The result: even well-meaning viewers / readers will remain confused about whom to believe and whom to trust. And confused people are easy prey for conspiracy theories and populists.
- Some day, the media will realize that the “We provide a forum for opposing views, you decide” model just doesn’t work. Unfortunately, that day has not yet come. Most people need to be told be what’s true… and if the best won’t tell them, then the worst, like Trump, will.
Bottom line: the header should in fact be “What won’t change…” because in most respects nothing will change… unless the DP gets control of the Senate and seizes the moment.
Next section: What should Biden and the DP do?
Terminology:
R — Republican. D — Democrat. RV — Republican Voter. DV — Democratic Voter. RP — Republican Politician. DP — Democratic Politician. The RP — The Republican Party. The DP — the Democratic Party. EO — Executive Order.
